Service Plays Thursday 6/10/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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NBA NEWS AND NOTES
Game Of The Day: Lakers At Celtics
By Matt Fargo


Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics (-3, 191)
Los Angeles leads the series 2-1.

The Numbers

The Celtics are at -3.5 for Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Game 3’s closing line was Boston -2.5 and this game opened at -3, so it is right in line of where it should be. The total is at 190.5, which is a point less than the Game 3 closing total. Through three games the total is 1-1-1 or 2-1 to the under depending on where and when Game 1 was bet.

Schizo-Allen

He giveth and he taketh away.

After Ray Allen broke the NBA Finals record with eight 3-pointers in Game 2, including seven straight makes, he nearly broke another record in Game 3. And it was not his own. He went 0-for-13 from the floor, including 0-for-8 from behind the arc, which came close to the 0-14 mark set by Dennis Johnson in 1979 and Chick Reiser in 1948.

How does this happen? Allen is one of the best shooters in the history of the league, so his record performance last Sunday was not a total surprise. His dubious game Tuesday was, however. Had he even been a little below average and the Celtics probably would have won Game 3.

Despite being 0-for-12, Allen showed he still had confidence as he put up a long ball with under a minute remaining and Boston trailing by four points. It clanged off the rim and that was it.

“It's a hell of a swing, I'll tell you that,” Boston head coach Doc Rivers told reporters. “It's basketball. That's why you can't worry about it. He'll be back in the gym [Wednesday] and getting ready for the next game. I thought he was pressing early on some of them, and, honestly, I thought all of his shots looked flat tonight.”

47-0? Who Cares

By now everyone has heard about Phil Jackson and his remarkable record when winning the first game of a playoff series. Including the Lakers in their three prior series this year, Jackson-coached teams have never lost a playoff series after winning the first game as they are a perfect 47-0 between the Bulls and Lakers.

As gaudy as that sounds, while some may be impressed, some are not 100 percent sold on it and here is why. When looking at the other 252 series that Jackson was not part of, the team that won Game 1 went on to win the series 199 times or 79 percent. Take that 79 percent and apply it to Jackson and his record in those series should be 38-9.

That is an additional nine series that were won over the rest of the league but you also have to take note of the teams that he was coaching and how great they were. None of his teams that won the NBA Championship dropped a single playoff series whether or not they won Game 1.

While many are concluding the Celtics are done, I say they are not. The series price right now is Boston +270 to +310 most everywhere and that is tremendous value with two games still coming up at home.

Kobe or Fisher

Kobe Bryant was more himself in Game 3. He made some big shots in leading the Lakers with 29 points. He was almost a non-factor in Game 2, so because of the results on Tuesday, he is hailed as once again being a clutch player. Well, he isn’t and there is proof of it.

He went 10-for-29 from the floor in Game 3 and that is the furthest thing from clutch. Any player is going to score that many points and lead the team in scoring by putting it up way more than twice as many shots as the next closest player in attempts. The real proof is what player is the best when the game is on the line.

According to 82 Games, Bryant is fourth in the league in total game-winners hit but he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category - the most game-winning opportunity missed shots. In total, he has made only 25 percent (14-for-56) of his game-winning shots. He certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot.

There are four players in this series with better game-winning percentages that should be looked at first - Ray Allen (15-for-39 for 38.5 percent), Paul Pierce (11-for-32 for 34.4 percent), Pau Gasol (9-for-18 for 50 percent) and Derek Fisher (8-for-20 for 40 percent).

Fisher is known for his clutch performances in tight situations. From his shot with 0.4 seconds left to beat San Antonio in the 2004 playoffs to his Game 4 performance in last season’s finals, Fisher has seen and done it all. In Game 3, 11 of his 16 points came in the fourth quarter including some real clutch shots.

Must-Win Time

While the Celtics are far from dead, this is a very important time. The value is still in their corner but the time is dwindling. A loss in Game 4 means they would have to win out the series to win the championship and that means two final games in Los Angeles. It can be done but it is something Boston does not want to go through.

Recent history is on the Celtics' side as they trailed the Cavaliers 2-1 in the second round but came back to win the next three games. Past history is not on their side, however. Since the finals went to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, there have been 10 previous instances of a series being tied 1-1. In all 10 cases, the Game 3 winner went on to win the title.

Boston is well aware of this fact but like the Jackson streak, the Celtics could care less. As Tony Allen said, this Celtics team is about living in the present, not the past.

“Let me tell you this,” Allen told the media. “This team is in the present right now; we're not worrying about what went on previously, not worried about the stats about who wins the third game and all that. We're worried about the next game, and that's our focus.”

Game 4 is then a must-win spot for the Celtics but bettors need to take the line into consideration. With it being close to the Game 3 line, the linesmakers have not made the over-adjustment for the must-win team. The thinking is relatively simple because the higher that line gets, the more action will come in on the publicly-loved Lakers.

Trends

The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up loss.
The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as an underdog of fewer than five points.
The over is 7-1-2 in Lakers’ last 10 games following a straight-up win.
The over is 35-16 in Celtics’ last 51 games following a straight-up loss.
The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

 

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PICK 'N' ROLL

Thursday's Best NBA Bet

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics (-3.5, 190)

If someone had told you before the NBA Finals that one coach would be complaining about the physicality of the series, Phil Jackson would have been the prime suspect.

But after the Lakers' 91-84 victory over the Celtics on Tuesday night's Game 3 in Boston, Doc Rivers is the one crying foul about the officials' failure to do the same.

"I think it was a ton of moving screens they got away with," Rivers said Wednesday after sending video evidence to the league office. "As far as off-the-ball action ... you are not allowed to hold, you are not allowed to bump, and you are not allowed to impede progress. I read that this morning, and I'm positive of it. So, you know, when that happens it has to be called."

In reality, the Lakers were merely beating the Celtics at their own game. Boston was supposed to be the border-line rugby squad in this matchup, so it's funny hearing Doc "Cry Me A" Rivers whine when the Celtics get a taste of their own medicine.

Now Rivers is taking a page from the playbook of Jackson, who is the master at using the media to manipulate officials. There's a good reason he does it - because it works. Look for the Celtics to get more physical - and get more breaks - in this one.

Pick: Boston Celtics

 

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
MLB Top 5: Best Clutch-Hitting Teams In Baseball
By Aaron Schuldiner


When the game hangs in the balance, the team that produces timely hits often comes out on top.

We calculated the difference between each team’s batting average with runners in scoring position and their overall batting average - a statistic we’ll refer to as SPAD (Scoring Position Average Differential) - to measure their ability to hit in the clutch. You might be surprised who made the top five.

*Numbers in parentheses are (SPAD / AVG. with RISP / Overall AVG.). All statictics compiled prior to Tuesday’s games.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+.42/.292/.250)

It might seem odd that Arizona leads the majors in SPAD, considering they’re 12 games below .500 and firmly entrenched in the NL West cellar. Arizona’s impressive .292 RISP avg. (tied for third in MLB) has simply not been enough to offset a pitching staff that owns the worst ERA in baseball (5.47) and an overall batting average of .250 (14th in the NL), as evidenced by their 5-10 record in one-run games.


Los Angeles Dodgers (+.24/.292.268)

Although he has struggled since returning from the DL in late May, Andre Ethier is batting a robust .435 with runners in scoring position in 2010. The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks both have a .292 RISP average, but the Dodgers’ .268 overall batting average (second in the NL) and superior pitching has positioned them 11 games in front of Arizona in the standings. Los Angeles is seven games above .500 in one-run games (tied for first in MLB) thanks to its ability to get the big hit.

Cincinnati Reds (+.19/.296/.277)

Cincinnati leads MLB in RISP average (.296) and is third in overall batting (.277). The upstart Reds, tied for first place in the NL Central, have reaped the benefits of Jonny Gomes’ resurgence. In 42 at-bats with runners in scoring position, Gomes is batting .429 with an almost unthinkable 1.240 OPS. Cincinnati has been the fourth most profitable team in MLB this season (7.27 units).

Cleveland Indians (+.19/.265/.246)

Cleveland’s high SPAD is really a result of their paltry .246 overall batting average (tied for 24th in MLB). With that kind of offensive production and the fifth-worst team ERA in baseball, the Indians (21-35, last place in the AL Central) just have too many holes to be saved by a respectable .246 RISP avg. (tied for 13th in MLB).

Tampa Bay Rays (+.18/.275/.257)

Tampa Bay has been the third-most profitable team in baseball in 2010 (7.32 units). At 37-20, the Rays own the best record in MLB, due in large part to their ability to hit in the clutch. Their .275 RISP average is fourth in the majors and tops in the American League. Carl Crawford has been especially good with runners in scoring position, batting .400 with 26 RBI in 55 at-bats. Rookie catcher John Jaso has also thrived, batting .371 with RISP.

 

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HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians (+175, 9)

The Indians haven't been able to hit a lefty all year and the Red Sox send one of the best in the business to the mound tonight in Jon Lester, who hasn't lost to the Tribe over his last four meetings.

Lester opened the season 0-2 and allowed 15 earned runs in his first three starts. He's been on fire ever since, allowing only nine earned runs in his last nine starts.

Lester has won seven straight starts with only one no-decision in between to keep it from being a pure streak. He's been especially hot in his last four outings, allowing only two earned runs in 28 1/3 innings.

"It was a combination of everything," catcher Jason Varitek said of Lester's dramatic turnaround. "He located his cutter, located his fastball, probably doesn't throw as many changeups."

The Red Sox have won nine of their last 10 on the road, the Indians have lost 13 of their last 16 at home and Boston has taken seven out of eight from the Tribe. If that's not enough evidence that Beantown has Cleveland's number, remember what the Celtics did to the Cavs.

Pick: Boston Red Sox


Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks +145, 10)

The Braves and Diamondbacks have gone over the total in seven straight meetings. But all trends have to end and tonight looks like the night.

The D-backs send Detroit castaway Dontrelle Willis to the mound. He made a big splash in his NL return last week by throwing six scoreless innings and only longtime Brave Chipper Jones has ever faced the lefty regularly.

Willis might be a good fit in Arizona, which has used only one other lefthanded pitcher this season. The D-Train felt right at home with the D-backs, calling it "a good team gathering. They believe in me, and I believe in them, so it's a good thing."

Atlanta sends red-hot Tommy Hanson to the hill. He has won his last three starts with a 2.41 ERA over that stretch. The Braves are playing their seventh straight road game so their bats may be beginning to wear a bit thin.

Pick: Under

 

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WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
WNBA Betting Coverage And Insights
By SBG Staff


WNBA betting has a lack of widespread coverage on the WNBA, but fortunately the internet provides fairly comprehensive reporting on the WNBA along with some evaluations of WNBA odds. The two most common sources for such WNBA betting information are media pages and internet forums.

WNBA betting information can be found in abundance –although often indirectly – on general sports media sites. The big internet sports sites all provide decent coverage of the WNBA, even though they often do not focus specifically on WNBA betting. Nevertheless, these websites provide an easy tool with which to follow the WNBA action and remain up to date on all WNBA developments. Even though the stories do not directly cover WNBA betting, you will unquestionably finds lots of information that will prove useful as you handicap WNBA odds. In fact, remaining informed about the WNBA is more important than finding WNBA betting insights because you can make your WNBA betting decisions alone, but it is obviously impossible to know about every WNBA game without using the media. Furthermore, there are some sports gambling media sites that will provide information that is more directly related to WNBA betting and the WNBA odds. For instance, you may find stories about how certain teams are performing in relation to the WNBA odds or different WNBA betting trends that have emerged. By reading these stories you will enjoy more detailed WNBA betting analysis that can assist your own WNBA betting.

In addition to stories on websites, one can also find many discussions on internet forums about WNBA betting. There are a wide variety of sports gambling forums on the web and many of the bigger ones have sections or at least threads devoted to WNBA betting. On these sites you will find information and opinions offered by other gamblers about WNBA betting. While the other posters are mostly just amateur bettors, their insights can be very useful and can offer new perspectives on WNBA betting lines that perhaps you had not thought about previously. Consequently, you should be somewhat skeptical about the WNBA betting information you obtain from online sports betting forums, yet you should also be open to new opinions and strategies that may assist your WNBA betting.

 

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LADY LUCK

Thursday's Best WNBA Bet

Minnesota Lynx at Phoenix Mercury (-7.5, 181)

The Phoenix Mercury look like the farthest thing from WNBA champs.

The Mercury have dropped back-to-back games and four of their last five outings, most recently falling 92-91 to the Los Angeles Sparks on a Candice Parker jumper this Tuesday.

Phoenix’s defense has been the big issue during this skid, allowing over 93 points per game over the last five. The Mercury are the most explosive offensive club in the league, scoring a WNBA-high 88.4 points a night. But that inability to stop opponents has led to a 3-1-1 over/under mark during that span.

Minnesota, who upset Phoenix at the beginning of the month, has found its offensive touch after a slow start to the schedule. The Lynx are averaging almost 88 point a game since beating the Mercury 92-82.

Pick: Over

 

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ANDRE GOMES

NBA Sides Thu, 06/10/10 - 9:05 PM
double-dime bet 708 BOS -3.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 707 LAL
Analysis: 
NBA - 707 LA Lakers @ 708 Boston Celtics

*Double Dime Play*

NOTE: this game will be played only tomorrow, write up to be added later.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 708 Boston Celtics (-3)

 

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JIM FEIST
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians - Thursday June 10, 2010 7:05 pm
Pick: 4 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 9 (-125) (Play of the Day)

Take: UNDER

Reason: 20-Star High Roller Total: Red Sox/Indians Under the total.
play the Red Sox/Indians Under the total

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Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics - Thursday June 10, 2010 9:05 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Boston Celtics -3.5 (-110) (Normal)

Take: (708) BOSTON CELTICS

Reason: Inner Circle: Celtics in Game 4.
Play the Celtics.

 

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DOC SPORTS
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics - Thursday June 10, 2010 9:05 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) ATS: Los Angeles Lakers +3 (100) (Game of the Year)

5-Unit Play #707 Take LA Lakers over Boston (9 p.m. EST, Thursday)

 

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MARC LAWRENCE
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics - Thursday June 10, 2010 9:05 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)

Play On: Los Angeles Lakers (Game 707)
We recommend a 3* play on the Lakers

 

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NICK "BOOKIEKILLER" PARSONS

NBA Total Thu, 06/10/10 - 9:05 PM

triple-dime bet 707 LAL / 708 BOS Under 190.5 Bodog
Analysis: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

*10* "BIG EA$Y"

 

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BASEBALL CRUSHER
PLAY OF THE DAY

Colorado Rockies -140 over the Houston Astros

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR ODonnell | NBA Sides Thu, 06/10/10 - 9:05 PM

double-dime bet 708 BOS -4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 707 LAL
Analysis:
CELTICS GO OFF AND WIN & COVER TONIGHT!! LAY THE 4 GANG!!

NBA WINNER = 2* CELTICS - 4

GAME 4
We are the 50-32 Ki~ller C's tonight as they bounce back tonight as JR O. realizes that this will be a popular play and some times you just have to move when the #'s are there! Boston C's will give effort tonight and the Power Ratings that we have move the Celtics at - 7 at home vs the Lakers. Ray Allen will not shoot 0- the game tonight. The Kg show will take the home town boys on his back and Doc Rivers crew will roll with the fact they are 6-1 that last 7 off a loss. The Celtics are the play Tonight!!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

King Creole | NBA Total Thu, 06/10/10 - 9:05 PM

triple-dime bet 707 LAL / 708 BOS Under 190.5 Sportbet
Analysis:
Thursday, June 10th / 9:00pm ET / Game Four of NBA FINALS
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics
5***** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness | NBA Total Thu, 06/10/10 - 9:05 PM

triple-dime bet 707 LAL / 708 BOS Over 190.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: My 10* NBA Finals Total of the Year is on LA/Bos 'Over' at 9:00 ET.
expect both teams to reach triple digits in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

gill alexander | MLB Money Line Thu, 06/10/10 - 3:10 PM

double-dime bet 908 COL (-130) Sportbet vs 907 HOU

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rocky Atkinson | MLB Money Line Thu, 06/10/10 - 2:10 PM

triple-dime bet 905 CHC (+100) Bookmaker.com vs 906 MIL
Analysis:
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee 2:10 PM EST
Play On: 5* Chicago Cubs +100 (Dempster/Bush) Listed

We'll play the Chicago Cubs for 5 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hammer The Book

ROTATION 707/708: 3-UNITS: LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ BOSTON CELTICS (CELTICS -2 @ Pinnancle, Greek, Bet Phoenix & Legends,)

ROTATION 707/708: 4-UNITS: LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ BOSTON CELTICS (UNDER 192 @ Bet Phoenix, Legends, Pinnancle & Greek,)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Comppicks

NBA
Celtics -3.5
Lakers/Celtics OVER 190

MLB
Rockies -130
Diamondbacks +150
Blue Jays +125
Rangers -1.5 (+100)

Comppick (free pick)
Red Sox/Indians UNDER 9